One of the most talked about Premier League stories this season was the poor performance of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur. Finishing 15th and 17th respectively, the two clubs fell short of anywhere near the standards that fans would expect.

Part of the reason has been the increasing strength of the ‘middle of the road’ Premier League clubs. In recent seasons, because of the difference in financial parity, even the weakest Big Six team would only finish as low as 9th. Since 2010, on only one occasion had a Big Six team finished outside the top half (Chelsea 12th, 2023).

But this year, both Spurs and United accumulated the fewest points they had ever earned in a Premier League season. Could this indicate an end to the Big Six as we know it?

The origins of the big six

From around 2010, the term Big Six became widely used to refer to the strongest six teams in English football – Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham.

In the 2000s, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United dominated the top Premier League positions. After Sheikh Mansour took over Manchester City in 2008, and Tottenham’s acute recruitment enabled them to compete for European places, for a few years the top six Premier League positions became harder for other clubs to break into.

However, as middling teams spent more and utilised strategies like data-based recruitment, they were able to start outperforming the traditional Big Six.

Newcastle’s takeover and Aston Villa’s appointment of well-renowned European coach Unai Emery strengthened their ability to compete for Champions League places.

Brentford and Brighton’s data-based recruitment models also enabled them to compete. Increasing Premier League prize pots also allowed traditionally smaller teams to expand their spending. In the summer of 2024, Bournemouth spent a reported club record transfer fee of nearly £40 million to sign Brazilian striker Evanilson. Combining the shrewd recruitment and financial acumen of middling clubs, the advantage that the Big Six had could be wearing off.

the Future of the big six

It is worth noting that the other four Big Six clubs finished in the top four positions this season. However, this was not a foregone conclusion, as only Liverpool had confirmed their top four spot before the second last matchday.

Tottenham’s Europa League victory, and subsequent Champions League qualification, could enable them to attract more talent in the summer. Already, they have been able to appoint Brentford manager Thomas Frank as their new head coach. But Champions League football could distract them from the league once again, which could lead to them continuing to struggle. 

Manchester United have the opposite problem. Without European football, they should be more able to focus all resources on the league. However, top talent may be less inclined to join a team who are not in the Champions League. 

In a more competitive league than ever, neither club can afford to coast for another season.